Although much can change in the next eleven months, and the Republicans have very likely gerrymandered themselves into control of the House, right now, it is moderately likely that the Democrats will gain a few seats in the Senate. Several races in purple states have strong Democratic candidates where Republican incumbents are retiring or aren't particularly popular (i.e Ron Johnson). If the Democrats pick up two seats that renders Mr. Manchin and Ms. Sinema less important, and it also reduces McConnell's leverage. Particularly if the incoming Republican Senators are Trump lackeys, this may increase Mitch's desire to leave the scene before whatever disaster awaits in 2024.